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Trailing by two goals after the first leg, Ukraine is expected to play cautiously in their return match against Belgium. This makes a comeback for the Red Devils in the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals highly unlikely, according to pixiejars.com.
2:45 AM, October 24, 2024, UEFA Nations League Play-off
Belgium vs. Ukraine: A Mountain to Climb for the Red Devils
While supercomputers give Belgium a 58% chance of victory compared to Ukraine’s 19%, overturning a 1-3 deficit from the first leg presents a formidable challenge. The odds may be in their favor for a win on the night, but the aggregate score looms large.
This crucial play-off match has significant implications for both teams. For Belgium, it’s a fight to retain their League A status, while Ukraine aims to solidify their impressive performance and advance in the competition.
Analyzing Belgium’s Struggles
Belgium’s 1-3 defeat to Ukraine in the first leg has left their League A hopes hanging by a thread. The loss extended their winless streak in the UEFA Nations League to six matches, five of which have been defeats. This slump in form raises serious questions about their ability to compete at the highest level.
Under manager Rudi Garcia, Belgium’s defensive vulnerabilities have been glaring. They have conceded goals in their last six matches, totaling 12 goals against. Two consecutive home defeats following a 3-1 victory against Israel in September further highlight their alarming dip in form. The defensive frailties are a major concern going into this must-win fixture.
Ukraine’s Resurgence and Tactical Approach
While Ukraine’s 2024 opponents have been comparatively weaker due to their League B status, Sergiy Rebrov’s side has capitalized on these opportunities, culminating in their crucial victory against Belgium in the first leg. Their current five-match unbeaten run, including three victories, underscores their impressive form.
Ukraine’s attacking prowess is undeniable, having found the back of the net in their last five matches. However, defensive weaknesses persist, with Ukraine failing to keep a clean sheet in their last four outings. Entering the Cegeka Arena with a significant advantage, Ukraine will be confident, while Belgium must throw everything forward in search of an unlikely comeback. This tactical dynamic promises an intriguing encounter.
Belgium vs. Ukraine: Predictions and Analysis
Goal Predictions
Belgium’s recent matches have seen a total of 13 goals (2.6 goals/match), while Ukraine’s tally stands at 18 goals (3.6 goals/match). Historically, clashes between these two sides have averaged 2.4 goals per game (12 goals in their last 5 meetings).
Despite the higher recent averages, the historical data suggests a tighter affair. Considering the stakes and Ukraine’s likely defensive approach, a low-scoring match seems probable. Under 2.5 goals wouldn’t be a surprise.
Corner Kick Predictions
In their last five matches, Belgium has earned 37 corners (7.4 corners/match), while Ukraine boasts a slightly higher average of 9.8 corners/match (49 total corners). Their previous two encounters produced a total of 17 corners, averaging 8.5 corners/match.
Given both teams’ propensity for corner kicks and the anticipated tactical approach – Belgium attacking, Ukraine defending – we could see a high number of corners. Over 9 corners seems a likely outcome.
Card Predictions
Disciplinary records show Ukraine receiving 23 yellow cards (4.6 cards/match) and Belgium receiving 25 yellow cards (5 cards/match) in their last five games respectively. Their recent head-to-head matches have been relatively clean, averaging only 1.5 yellow cards per game.
While historical data suggests a low card count, the high-stakes nature of this match could lead to increased intensity and potential bookings. Over 3 cards is a distinct possibility.
Match Outcome Prediction
Predicting a 1-1 draw. Belgium’s need for goals might leave them vulnerable at the back, allowing Ukraine to capitalize on the counter-attack. However, Belgium’s attacking talent should be enough to secure at least a goal.
Team News and Projected Lineups
Squad Updates
Belgium: Thibaut Courtois returns in goal, while defensive changes are possible, with Wout Faes and Ameen Al-Dakhil vying for a starting spot. Youri Tielemans retains his midfield role, and Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku will lead the attack.
Ukraine: The Yellow and Blues might maintain their lineup or introduce changes. Vladyslav Vanat made an impact as a substitute, while Artem Dovbyk’s fitness is a concern. Andriy Lunin is expected to start in goal despite competition from Anatoliy Trubin.
Predicted Starting XIs
Belgium: Courtois; Castagne, Faes, Debast, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Saelemaekers, De Bruyne, Trossard; Lukaku.
Ukraine: Lunin; Konoplya, Zabarnyi, Matviyenko, Mykolenko; Shaparenko, Kalyuzhnyi, Zinchenko; Tsygankov, Sudakov; Vanat.
Form and Head-to-Head Record
Recent Form
Belgium: 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches. 4 goals scored, 8 conceded.
Ukraine: 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 matches. 8 goals scored, 4 conceded.
Head-to-Head
Belgium: 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 2 meetings against Ukraine.
Ukraine: 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses in their last 2 meetings against Belgium.
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